Optimal performance in time-constrained and dynamically changing environments depends on making reliable predictions about future outcomes. In sporting tasks, performers have been found to employ multiple information sources to maximize the accuracy of their predictions, but questions remain about how different information sources are weighted and integrated to guide anticipation. In this paper, we outline how active inference, a unifying account of perception and action, explains many of the prominent findings in the sports anticipation literature. Active inference proposes that perception and action are underpinned by the need to minimize prediction errors and optimise a predictive model of the world. To this end, decision making approximates Bayesian inference and actions are used to minimize future prediction errors. Using a series of Bayesian neurocomputational models based on a partially observable Markov process, we demonstrate that key findings from the literature can be recreated from the first principles of active inference. In doing so, we formulate a number of novel, empirically falsifiable hypotheses about human anticipation capabilities which could guide future investigations in the field.

The integration of prior expectations, sensory information, and environmental volatility is proposed to be atypical in Autism Spectrum Disorder, yet few studies have tested these predictive processes in active movement tasks. We used an immersive virtual-reality racquetball paradigm to explore how visual sampling behaviours and movement kinematics are adjusted in relation to unexpected, uncertain, and volatile changes in environmental statistics. We found that prior expectations concerning ball ‘bounciness’ affected sensorimotor control in both autistic and neurotypical participants, with all individuals using prediction-driven gaze strategies to track the virtual ball. However, autistic participants showed substantial differences in visuomotor behaviour when environmental conditions were more volatile. Specifically, uncertainty-related performance difficulties in these conditions were accompanied by atypical movement kinematics and visual sampling behaviours. Results support proposals that autistic people overestimate the volatility of sensory environments, and suggest that context-sensitive differences in active inference could explain a range of movement-related difficulties in autism.

Objective: the aim of this work was to examine the fidelity and validity of an aviation simulation using eye tracking. Background: Commercial head-mounted virtual reality (VR) systems offer a convenient and cost-effective alternative to existing aviation simulation (e.g. for refresher exercises). We performed pre-implementation testing of a novel aviation simulation, designed for head-mounted VR, to determine its fidelity and validity as a training device. Method: Eighteen airline pilots, with varying levels of flight experience, completed a sequence of training ‘flows’. Self-reported measures of presence and workload and users’ perceptions of fidelity were taken. Pilots’ eye movements and performance were recorded to determine whether more experienced pilots showed distinct performance and eye gaze profiles in the simulation, as they would in the real-world. Results: Real-world expertise correlated with eye gaze patterns characterised by fewer, but longer, fixations and a scan path that was more structured and less random. Multidimensional scaling analyses also indicated differential clustering of strategies in more versus less experienced pilots. Subjective ratings of performance, however, showed little relationship with real-world expertise or eye movements. Conclusion: We adopted an evidence-based approach to assessing the fidelity and validity of a VR flight training tool. Pilot reports indicated the simulation was realistic and potentially useful for training, while direct measurement of eye movements was useful for establishing construct validity and psychological fidelity of the simulation.

Research suggests that sensorimotor difficulties in autism could be reduced by providing individuals with explicit contextual information. To test this, we examined autistic visuomotor control during a virtual racquetball task, in which participants hit normal and unexpectedly-bouncy balls using a handheld controller. The probability of facing each type of ball was varied unpredictably over time; however, during cued trials, participants received explicit information about the likelihood of facing each uncertain outcome. When compared to neurotypical controls, autistic individuals displayed poorer task performance, atypical gaze profiles, and more restricted swing kinematics. These visuomotor patterns were not significantly affected by contextual cues, indicating that autistic people exhibit underlying differences in how prior information and environmental uncertainty are dynamically modulated during movement-based tasks.

This thesis examined the aetiology of sensorimotor impairments in Autism Spectrum Disorder: a neurodevelopmental condition that affects an individual’s socio-behavioural preferences, personal independence, and quality of life. Issues relating to clumsiness and movement coordination are common features of autism that contribute to wide-ranging daily living difficulties. However, these characteristics are relatively understudied and there is an absence of evidence-based practical interventions. To pave the way for new, scientifically-focused programmes, a series of studies investigated the mechanistic underpinnings of sensorimotor differences in autism. Following a targeted review of previous research, study one explored links between autistic-like traits and numerous conceptually-significant movement control functions. Eye-tracking analyses were integrated with force transducers and motion capture technology to examine how participants interacted with uncertain lifting objects. Upon identifying a link between autistic-like traits and context-sensitive predictive action control, study two replicated these procedures with a sample of clinically-diagnosed participants. Results illustrated that autistic people are able to use predictions to guide object interactions, but that uncertainty-related adjustments in sensorimotor integration are atypical. Such findings were advanced within a novel virtual-reality paradigm in study three, which systematically manipulated environmental uncertainty during naturalistic interception actions. Here, data supported proposals that precision weighting functions are aberrant in autistic people, and suggested that these individuals have difficulties with processing volatile sensory information. These difficulties were not alleviated by the experimental provision of explicit contextual cues in study four. Together, these studies implicate the role of implicit neuromodulatory mechanisms that regulate dynamic sensorimotor behaviours. Results support the development of evidence-based programmes that ‘make the world more predictable’ for autistic people, with various theoretical and practical implications presented. Possible applications of these findings are discussed in relation to recent multi-disciplinary research and conceptual advances in the field, which could help improve daily living skills and functional quality of life.

The integration of prior expectations, sensory information, and environmental volatility is proposed to be atypical in Autism Spectrum Disorder, yet few studies have tested these predictive processes in active movement tasks. To address this gap in the research, we used an immersive virtual-reality racquetball paradigm to explore how visual sampling behaviours and movement kinematics are adjusted in relation to unexpected, uncertain, and volatile changes in environmental statistics. We found that prior expectations concerning ball 'bounciness' affected sensorimotor control in both autistic and neurotypical participants, with all individuals using prediction-driven gaze strategies to track the virtual ball. However, autistic participants showed substantial differences in visuomotor behaviour when environmental conditions were more volatile. Specifically, uncertainty-related performance difficulties in these conditions were accompanied by atypical movement kinematics and visual sampling responses. Results support proposals that autistic people overestimate the volatility of sensory environments, and suggest that context-sensitive differences in active inference could explain a range of movement-related difficulties in autism.

Developmental coordination disorder (DCD) describes a condition of poor motor performance in the absence of intellectual impairment. Despite being one of the most prevalent developmental disorders, little is known about how fundamental visuomotor processes might function in this group. One prevalent idea is children with DCD interact with their environment in a less predictive fashion than typically developing children. A metric of prediction which has not been examined in this group is the degree to which the hands and eyes are coordinated when performing manual tasks. To this end, we examined hand and eye movements during an object lifting task in a group of children with DCD (n=19) and an age-matched group of children without DCD (n=39). We observed no differences between the groups in terms of how well they coordinated their hands and eyes when lifting objects, nor in terms of the degree by which the eye led the hand. We thus find no evidence to support the proposition that children with DCD coordinate their hands and eyes in a non-predictive fashion. In a follow-up exploratory analysis we did, however, note differences in fundamental patterns of eye movements between the groups, with children in the DCD group showing some evidence of atypical visual sampling strategies and gaze anchoring behaviours during the task.

This paper presents the first two studies to explore the effect of challenge and threat states on endurance exercise capabilities. In study one, relationships between cardiovascular markers of challenge and threat states, ratings of perceived exertion (RPE), and exercise tolerance were explored during moderate- and severe-intensity cycling. Cardiovascular reactivity more reflective of a challenge state (i.e. relatively higher cardiac output and/or lower total peripheral resistance reactivity) predicted lower RPE throughout moderate- but not severe-intensity cycling. Building on these findings, study two experimentally manipulated participants into challenge, threat, and neutral groups, and compared 16.1 km time-trial performances, where pacing is self-regulated by RPE. Participants completed familiarisation, control, and experimental visits while physiological (oxygen uptake), perceptual (RPE), and performance-based (time to completion [TTC] and power output [PO]) variables were assessed. When compared to the threat group, the challenge group demonstrated cardiovascular responses more indicative of a challenge state, and delivered faster early-race pacing (PO) at similar RPE. Although there were no significant differences in TTC, results revealed that augmentations in PO for the challenge group were facilitated by tempered perceptions of fatigue. The findings suggest that an individual's pre-exercise psychophysiological state might influence perceived exertion and endurance exercise capabilities.

Recent research proposes that sensorimotor difficulties, such as those experienced by many autistic people, may arise from atypicalities in prediction. Accordingly, we examined the relationship between non-clinical autistic-like traits and sensorimotor prediction in the material-weight illusion, where prior expectations derived from material cues typically bias one's perception and action. Specifically, prediction-related tendencies in perception of weight, gaze patterns, and lifting actions were probed using a combination of self-report, eye-tracking, motion-capture, and force-based measures. No prediction-related associations between autistic-like traits and sensorimotor control emerged for any of these variables. Follow-up analyses, however, revealed that greater autistic-like traits were correlated with reduced adaptation of gaze with changes in environmental uncertainty. These findings challenge proposals of gross predictive atypicalities in autistic people, but suggest that the dynamic integration of prior information and environmental statistics may be related to autistic-like traits. Further research into this relationship is warranted in autistic populations, to assist the development of future movement-based coaching methods.